Black Swans and Brands

I’ve just returned from holiday and included in my reading was The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: he postulates that life is more influenced by random events that are almost impossible to predict than so-called forecasts and predictions. As an example he gives 9/11: if we couldhave predicted it, it would never have happened. We would have had bullet proof locked doors on all aircraft and 24 hour fighter patrols around the twin towers. The same could be said for many things from the growth of the Internet to the sub-prime disaster. Of course pundits will try to justify by hindsight – but the point he makes is that random or unpredictable events will have more impact than we ever can imagine – we have only to look at such events in our own lives or our own lifetimes.

The concept of the ‘black swan’ comes from Karl Popper, the philosopher of science. He maintained that science cannot prove anything, but only disprove. He used the example of the swan – science would have maintained that a swan is a big white bird: we can infer from all our knowledge of swans that this holds true for all swans. Until our discovery on the other side of the world of a black swan. In the same way, Newtonian Physics held for us since the 17th Century – until Einstein came along – and his explanation again held true until Quantum theory came along.

So where does this apply to brands? If we look at the history of brands we also see how important random, unpredictable events have been. Look at the growth of the Internet and the emergence of Google, the crash of Anderson consulting because somebody got greedy - we can think of many examples where surprising brands defied accepted thinking and took the markets by storm and others where random events brought established brands to their knees.

This is not an argument against planning and standard prediction, but common sense suggests that standard planning will at best result in standard results. We need to change our thinking to open our minds to randomness… to accept and look for the serendipitous. That is where the great brand ideas come from and the great opportunities. Remember French nuclear testing in the 1990’s? Who could have foreseen that UK consumers would react by ceasing to buy French produce… including wine? The rack space allocated to French wines in supermarkets shrank, new world wines flooded in to fill the vacuum and Australian and New Zealand brands especially became firm favourites in the UK.  Ironically from the antipodes… like the black swans.

New brands and brand values – start as you mean to go on.

I was talking about brands and brand values to a group on one of my training sessions and one girl said, “Yes, I understand all that you say about brand values, but it’s all in the context of established brands. What about somebody just starting out with a new brand with no history and no customers even?”

Good question, as most literature seems to assume an existing brand. But for a new brand it is an exciting proposition as you have a blank slate.  Let’s just consider the simplest proposition: in an unsophisticated world, Jim makes shoes. They are good shoes and people hear good things about them. Pretty soon people are beating a path to buy ‘Jim’s Shoes’. A brand is born. But where does Jim go from here? Soon he will not be able to keep up with demand and he will be faced with choices: does he take on assistants to increase capacity, or perhaps put up prices to control demand while maximising profits?  These choices will depend upon his values… his brands values. Dictating this will be questions about why people are buying his shoes… is it quality, style, cost, convenience?  What we are saying is that his brand and its values are intimately tied up with his business.

For the rest of us we go into business with more of a plan and a vision, so we are not purely reactive to events. But I believe it is crucial to put the brand at the centre of the business in the early stages. That way the brand grows organically with the business and should always reflect the corporate values… and if the brand stewards listen to their public, those of their customers too.

Brand narratives – multiple stories

Brands are not static: as I have often discussed, they are dynamic. A good way to think of brands is in terms of their narratives… of the stories they tell (or the stories we want them to tell). In the training sessions I do, I do an exercise to get delegates thinking about and articulatingtheir brand proposition. It’s fairly straightforward stuff, but what has impressed me is how powerful the propositions are when they are presented as stories.

Looking at it from the other end of the telescope, we, as consumers, (and I include B2B consumers in that) have multiple identities – we are sons, daughters, mothers, friends, siblings, bosses, subordinates, students, workmates, sportspeople… and all the rest. We present different identities, different facets of the self, and each identities has its own story, its own narrative.  My story as a father, is different from my story as an employer, different from my story as a consultant, different from my story as, say, a musician.

We look for brands whose narrative best fits and supports our personal narrative, for a particular identity. So, ‘me’ as a consultant and writer is looking for a different narrative when I’m choosing a shirt, laptop or hotel to ‘me’ as musician choosing a new guitar.

I often advocate the use of archetypes in helping target customers, consumers, but underline the fact that people are complex. People have multiple narratives in their lives. We must be keenly aware that our brands also have multiple stories, complex identities whose narratives can pass a wide range of messages.

Our cups runneth over

Wonderbra have done it again, with a billboard in central London promoting their new  D to G cup sizes.  Building on Trevor Beattie’s bold and iconic, ‘Hello boys’ ads. It may have started as a campaign concept but quickly turned into a a brand property that moved the brand significantly ahead of the competition.

Lingerie branding is a strange arena and rarely does anything so significant ripple that particular pool. Many years ago I was approached by a French agency who were doing some account planning in preparation for a pitch. They sent me a research questionnaire to put in place for them and one question asked respondents to rank the top lingerie brands in the UK… and all the big names were there.  The only problem was they had misunderstood the UK market where at that time the top lingerie brand was in fact a retailer… M&S.

What’s your favourite brand and why?

I referred in an earlier posting to the Readers’ Digest survey on trusted brands, it was a fascinating if confusing survey. How can Google be compared to a financial institution or a fast-food restaurant?  Why should a bank be favoured over a charity?  I guess one of the problems with a big quantitative survey is we miss the ‘why?’.  Okay, so I want to carry out a little trusted brand exercise of my own.  I’d like to know one of your trusted brands and know why you consider it so.  I’ll start you off with one:

Berghaus- I’ve trusted this brand of outdoor equipment and clothing for years, it has the great brand attribute of reliability – it has always lived up to its promise.  It also represents values I identify with.  I like to think of myself as a serious walker, and Berghaus seems to represent ’serious’ values. It is also an understated brand, which again matches my values. It does not scream its branding but the discreet logo is recognisable to ‘those who know’.  Incidentally, the name is German, which represents German, Austrian, Swiss alpine values – although the company is based in Tyne and Wear.

Okay, I’ve shown you mine… now you show me yours?